Personality and Popularity: Very few believed that Jeremy Corbyn could win a popularity contest (against almost anyone) but effectively that’s exactly what he did against the ‘Maybot’. Only a few months ago it seemed that the election of Corbyn as the head of the Labour party (principally as a result of support from Union members) may herald the beginning of an era where the Labour party became unelectable, however, Corbyn and his team expertly played the election game, tapping into the British dislike for complacency and arrogance and using social media channels to win an almost cult-like status amongst the younger generation. Clearly May was badly advised, absent at the wrong times, unwilling to properly engage, arrogant and overly confident in her popularity and in her approach – and the Conservative manifesto was very badly conceived and presented. The opinion polls about May’s popularity misled her and all her advisors. Corbyn on the other hand, the victim of an aggressive and vitriolic press campaign from several major newspapers, fulfilled the role the British people love to get behind – the underdog, whilst also tapping into the widespread feeling that austerity needs to come to an end. In giving the public a “personality” and a “cause” to support, he was able to leverage off the social media and alternative media channels and emerge looking like a hero. He is also, of course, a seasoned campaigner with resilience, endurance and a thick skin as his stock-in-trade! Corbyn won the popularity contest last Thursday – but has he peaked?
Young voters: 18 – 25 year olds (+) are very concerned for themselves and their futures! They do not like the thought of leaving University in debt (as a result of university tuition fees that Labour promised in its manifesto to remove) and they do not like the thought of struggling to get on the housing ladder. They also believe that Brexit will result in fewer available jobs and long term economic damage. The thought of a hard Brexit alongside ongoing austerity fills them with dread – so in the idealist world in which many of them reside, and having never seen the impact of a socialist government, they decided they wanted change and Corbyn was alone in offering it. The Conservative party will need to very carefully consider how they address this demographic in the future.
Manifesto: This is where the problems for the Conservatives really began. Hard Brexit, dementia tax, school lunches, pension raids, rising tuition fees, ongoing austerity, further cuts in public services … and so on. Hardly an inspiring and positive message for voters to get behind. It was ‘same old/same old’ in many respects in this post-GFC austerity focused UK and much of the electorate have had enough of this approach. The Labour manifesto was as ridiculous as the Conservative was uninspiring, but at least it was filled with feel good promises. The policies contained therein were tantamount to bribery and certainly there was no proper explanation of where the c. £100bn of expenditure was going to be sourced, other than from the ‘broad shoulders’ of the wealthy! Nonetheless, this old school socialist approach won the hearts and minds of many as the battle became, in part, austerity vs expenditure.
Brexit: Both the Conservative and Labour parties are committed to Brexit – that means 84% of the popular vote is effectively represented, albeit the maths is not that simple. Most people accept that Brexit will happen – the Liberal Democrats and the SNP who are very vocal opponents of Brexit both lost votes and seats. However, the issue is more about hard vs soft Brexit and I must say I have been growing increasingly uneasy about the hard Brexit approach the more I learn of what that might mean. Perhaps the fact that the Conservative Government are in a minority now and must form strategic alliances with those in favour of a soft Brexit will mean a more cross-party approach to Brexit and stand the UK in a better position to agree with the EU a mutually beneficial departure programme and package. Perhaps, without intending it, the voting public have just made an acceptable Brexit to all parties more likely.
Scotland: The Conservatives increased their number of seats in Scotland from 1 to 13 through a relentless campaign opposing any repeat referendum on splitting the UK. This electoral gain has helped to halt in its tracks the Scottish National party’s push for a second independence referendum and has, therefore, created a more stable outlook for Scotland and the United Kingdom. But I suspect that it is too important for the SNP to drop and so we can expect to hear a lot more about it – especially post Brexit when the terms are known. However, it feels as if the Union is stronger now than pre-election.
General Election and Conservative Party Leadership: I can’t imagine there is anyone in the Conservative party who would want to face another General Election in the near term, far too high risk. However, if it proves they simply can’t manage the Country even with the support of the DUP then perhaps there will have to be one. My guess is that the Conservatives feel Corbyn will remain in situ and in a position of strength until once again he says or does something to cause a fall from grace and, alongside lessons learnt, they will stand a much better chance to gain back the majority at that time than they do now. The leadership of the Conservative party is another matter. I believe May will stay as PM for a few more months to allow the dust to settle and then she will resign due to the loss of her credibility – leaving the way clear for someone like David Davies or Boris Johnson. The only issue that troubles me on this reasoning is that May has been elected by 42% of the popular vote and so actually has at least earnt the right to the keys of No 10 – which is more than you can say for anyone else.
The future certainly contains more unknowns now than before the election, however if it results in a faster more acceptable Brexit then perhaps it will all have been worthwhile. Moorfield stands by its existing investment strategy.